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A Gentle Introduction to Predictive Modelling
Introduction
1. Python Basics
Introduction to Python
Working with DataFrames
2. Linear Models and Overfitting
Linear Models: a Brief Theory
Linear Models in Action
The First Villain: Overfitting
3. Honest Estimates of Predictive Performance
Training and Test Sets
Cross-validation
4. Fighting Overfitting: the Advent of Machine Learning
Reducing Complexity: a Brief Theory
Reducing Complexity in Action
The Second Villain: Leakage
5. Hyperparameter Optimization and Nested Cross-validation
Cross-validation Revisited
Nested Cross-validation
6. Generalizability, Validity, Fairness
Generalizability
Validity and Specificity
Fairness
7. Model Explanation
Explaining “Classical” Models
Black Boxes
8. Complex Models: from Ensembles to Deep Learning
From Ensembles to Deep Learning
9. Scientific Examples
The Neurologic Pain Signature
A Pre-registered Model, and the Price of Honesty
The Model That Was Accurate and Wrong
References
Repository
Open issue
Index